More than a year after the United States slapped penalty tariffs on Japan for allegedly violating an agreement on semiconductor trade, Japanese officials are stepping up pressure on Washington to remove the penalties before President Reagan leaves office. U.S. officials counter that the Japanese government continues to renege on a pledge to boost the market share of imported U.S. chips. The $300ffs, since reduced to $165 million, were the strongest trade retaliation the United States has taken against Japan since World million in tari War II. ``The problem remains of a lack of market access,'' said a senior U.S. trade official, speaking on condition of anonymity. ``There is a certain goal, and the Japanese side is not living up to it.'' The Japanese claim sales of American semiconductors here soared 75 percent in the first quarter of this year over the same period last year. ``I don't know any people who are so greedy that they're not satisfied with a 75 percent increase in one year,'' Makoto Kuroda, ex-vice minister of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry, told journalists this month. MITI chief Hajime Tamura has urged U.S. Trade Representative Clayton Yeutter to lift the sanctions before the end of the Reagan admiStates isn't in danger of being dethroned as the world's soybean king, but the royal attire is a bit ragged. And some other countries that produce oilseed crops stand to make a little profit. Based on Aug. 1 indications, the Agriculture Department estimates the 1988 soybean harvest at 1.47 billion bushels, or 23 percent less than last year's production. The yield was put at 26 bushels per acre, compared with 33.7 in 1987. Two years ago, according to USDA economists, soybeans brought farmers an average of $4.78 per bushel. In the 1987-88 marketing year that runs through the end of August, prices are expected to average $6.20 per bushel. Even before the drought was fully developed this summer, it was apparent that the U.S. soybean supply was running low and that demand would boost prices. In June, USDA forecast bean prices in 1988-89 _ the year that will begin on Sept. 1 _ would be in the range of $5.75 to $7.75 per bushel. In July, after the fierce heat and drought spread deep into corn and soybean areas, the USDA upped the price forecast to $6.75 to $9.25 per bushel. The August analysis put the 1988-89 soybean price range at $7.25 to $9.75 per bushel. When the new marketing year begins Sept. 1, the U.S. soybean stockpile is expected to be about 280 million bushels, down from 436 million a year ago. By this time next year, the bean reserve may be 100 million bushels or less, according to the USDA projections. An updated crop report and analysis of the supply-demand situation, along with new price forecasts, will be issued by the department on Sept. 12. Hot, dry weather during the soybean plants' critical flowering stage since Aug. 1 has caused concern that harvest prospects have continued to decline. Meanwhile, the soybean's international importance as an oilseed continues to come under scrutiny by USDA experts. Other sources of vegetable oil and protein meal, such as rapeseed, cottonseed and other crops also are drawing close attention. Overall, based on August indications, the department's Foreign Agricultural Service estimated world oilseed production in 1988-89 at 201.4 million metric tons, down 2 percent from the July forecast and also 2 percent below the 1987-88 output. ``Lower production of soybeans in the United States and China because of drought-reduced yields account for most of the decline,'' the agency reported. ``Partially offsetting the reductions from last month are a projected 500,000-ton increase in Brazilian soybean production, substantial improvement for India's peanut crop and a 403,000-ton rise in U.S. cottonseed output.'' The report added: ``High relative prices for soybeans are expected to stimulate area gains (plantings) in Brazil.'' Brazil is the second-largest soybean producer and is the biggest competitor of U.S. farmers in world markets. The 1988 U.S. harvest of 1.47 billion bushels translates into about 40.1 million metric tons. There are about 36.7 bushels of beans in a ton. Comparatively, Brazil's 1988-89 crop is forecast at 20 million tons, followed by China, 12 million; and Argentina, 11 million. The 12-nation European Economic Community is expected to produce 1.55 million tons of soybeans this season, and Paraguay, 1.2 million. Other countries are expected to produce the remainder. While soybeans are the largest component of the global oilseed production forecast of 201.4 million tons, they still comprise less than half of the total. Other sources include: cottonseed, 33.07 million tons; peanuts, 22 million; sunflowerseed, 21.23 million; rapeseed, 21.49 million; flaxseed, 2 million; copra, 4.73 million; and palm kernel 2.85 million. Because they are in the Southern Hemisphere and thus on a different calendar cycle for growing seasons, Latin American producers are finding the U.S. drought is affecting their plans. ``In an effort to capitalize on higher prices before the U.S. harvest in 1989, Brazil and Argentina are forecast to increase their exports of soybeans,'' the report said. Brazil is expected to export 3.9 million tons of soybeans in 1988-89, up from 2.7 million last season, and Argentina's shipments are forecast at 3.2 million tons, up from 2.4 million in 1987-88. But the higher prices are dampening the demand for soybean imports in some major markets, the report said. The Soviet Union, for example, is expected to reduce bean imports in 1988-89 to 1.5 million tons, down 17 percent from this season. The Soviets are also expected to reduce imports of soybean meal to 2.7 million tons, down 100,000 tons from this year. The major U.S. foreign market for soybeans is the European Economic Community, and the higher prices are expected to reduce shipments to 11.2 million tons in 1988-89, down 1.9 million tons from this year, the report said. However, U.S. sales of soybean meal are forecast to rise slightly from 13 million tons in 1987-88.
