By this point on the political calendar, New Hampshire's campaign veterans are accustomed to seeing would-be presidential nominees at work in the first primary state, in person or by proxy. But a year before first primary of the next presidential election campaign, nothing is stirring. A few potential candidates visited in 1989 and early 1990, but not one candidate or campaign worker has set up shop in what should be prime time to prepare for 1992. ``It's been amazingly quiet,'' says Dennis Murphy, chairman of Illinois Sen. Paul Simon's 1988 primary campaign. ``I haven't heard from anyone, haven't talked to anyone even remotely representing a presidential candidate.'' By contrast, Democrats Bruce Babbitt, the former Arizona governor, and Rep. Richard A. Gephardt, the House majority leader from Missouri, campaigned in New Hampshire two years before the 1988 primary. Other candidates, including then-Vice President George Bush, had campaign workers in the state at this time in 1986. Bush and Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis, the eventual nominees, won their party primaries here in 1988. Since the current primary system was instituted, no president has been elected without winning in New Hampshire first. In Iowa, site of the first presidential caucus, the political scene is equally quiet. What's the story? Some say candidates have abandoned long primary campaigns because they are too grueling, can lead to burnout, and have turned off many voters. They also point to Gephardt, who withdrew before the national convention in 1988, as evidence that candidates who get the jump on their competition often end up losing anyway. Others say candidates don't want to tip their hands too early. ``After even one trip here, no one can say anything on their minds anymore because it will be viewed as being motivated by presidential politics,'' says Ned Helms, the state Democratic chairman. Sen. Sam Nunn of Georgia recently turned down an invitation to speak in New Hampshire in February. ``I am not ready to have everyone in the country say that Sam Nunn has decided to run for president,'' he explained. The 1988 primary was for an open presidential race, with Ronald Reagan retiring. Bush will be up for re-election in 1992. State Republican Chairwoman Rhona Charbonneau said Gov. Mario Cuomo's narrowed margin in a three-way New York election, and Sen. Bill Bradley's close call victory in New Jersey hurt two of the Democrats' most appealing potential candidates. Other Democrats mentioned as possible entries include Nunn; Sens. Joseph R. Biden of Delaware, Lloyd M. Bentsen of Texas, Albert Gore Jr. of Tennessee, Tom Harkin of Iowa and Bob Kerrey of Nebraska; Govs. Douglas Wilder of Virginia and Richard Celeste of Ohio; and the Rev. Jesse Jackson. The speculation about a possible conservative challenge to Bush in a Republican primary comes up short of likely candidates. Former Delaware Gov. Pete du Pont has set up a political action committee, but he quickly told a New Hampshire newspaper that it wasn't to finance a second presidential bid. Du Pont ran in 1988. He said his Committee for Republican Leadership is to fight tax increases, not to launch a presidential bid. Thomas Rath, who led Sen. Bob Dole's 1988 New Hampshire primary effort, says Bush's enormous popularity for most of his first term, and the Persian Gulf crisis, are reasons for the political inactivity. ``For an extended period of time Bush's numbers were so high, they maybe scared off challengers,'' Rath says. ``And the Middle East has had a big impact. I don't think anyone wants to look like they're using it for their own political gain.'' Some welcome the change from two-year primary campaigns. `I'm not disappointed at all,'' Murphy says. ``I've never been a fan of the first-in-the-nation primary. What happens in the statehouse is much more important.'' Mary Chambers, Democratic leader of the New Hampshire House, also believes less is better in primary elections. ``Nobody is even thinking about it - they're too busy with other things,'' she says. ``They are going to stay (in Washington) and take care of business as long as it's so questionable about what will happen in the Middle East.''
