Has Wall Street's so-called ``summer rally'' lost its sizzle, or are stock prices merely simmering before the heat gets turned up? The Dow Jones industrial average has climbed some 200 points since May 31, and this week alone the key index set two, consecutive post-crash highs before tumbling on fears of higher interest rates. But before assessing just what impact these events may have on what has been dubbed a summer rally, astute market watchers note that the sultry season hasn't even begun. ``It's not summer yet,'' said Ronald Daino, a technical analyst at Smith Barney, Harris Upham & Co., noting the season officially gets under way on Tuesday. Depending on how things go, Daino said these recent events ``could be looked back upon as part of an initial summer rally.'' But he's not entirely convinced that is inevitable. ``We still feel it requires some confirmation on whether the market will move higher,'' Daino said. ``The potential is there, but I'd just like some additional confirmation before putting both feet in the water,'' he said, pointing to the drought's effect on commodity prices and the credit markets as areas of concern. Plunging bond prices obliterated the 32-point gain the Dow posted in back-to-back sessions this week that pushed the key average to two post-crash highs. Those who expected the Dow Jones average of 30 industrials to remain solidly above 2,100 and use that mark as a springboard for a further advance saw those plans evaporate in one brief session. Rumors out of Europe that West Germany and even possibly Japan are considering hiking interest rates ignited fears that the Federal Reserve might be forced to follow suit to support the dollar. The news deflated the bond market, and ripple effects spread to equities. But analysts shrugged it off, saying the stock market was overdue for a selloff, that it needed a breather and that the overall trend is ``constructive.'' Over the week, the Dow rose 2.31 points to 2,104.02. Friday's volume of 343.92 million shares on the New York Stock Exchange, attributed to moves to capture dividends and the quarterly ``triple-witching hour,'' was the busiest session this year and the fifth heaviest ever. Volume averaged 201.64 million shares a day. The NYSE composite index was off 0.05 at 152.84; the NASDAQ composite index for the over-the-counter market rose 0.67 to 386.92; and the American Stock Exchange market value index fell 3.63 to 305.70. Alfred Goldman, director of technical market analysis at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis, cautioned that he is both ``amazed and chagrined at how quickly pessimism has turned to optimism about everything.'' A better-than-expected trade deficit report, which heartened investors because both imports and exports had declined in April, should have been tempered with caution over factory utilization, which edged up beyond expectations in May, Goldman said. The implication is that booming business could result in shortages of some goods and price increases to compensate. Still, investors hot to perpetuate the ``summer'' rally are tossing off concerns about an overheated economy. ``Everybody is looking up as far as the stock market is concerned,'' Goldman said. ``That's a sign the market is over-bought and over-believed and that we're getting into a high-risk area.'' Goldman noted that optimism breeds declines in the market while pessimism is fodder for rallies.
